Election Commission sets 13 November for contempt hearing against Imran Khan; Pakistan ranks among the top ten exporters of grain to China
In Brief
Exclusive Update
Repatriation of Illegal migrants
Balochistan’s minister claims that the government plans to remove legal Afghan migrants
On 10 November, Dawn reported that Balochistan’s interim Information Minister at the Karachi Press Club meeting claimed that the government might kickstart the process to repatriate ‘legal’ Afghan migrants living in Pakistan as per the “state decision.” He also clarified that the process will continue after the establishment of the new government saying: “And no one should be mistaken. This is the decision of a ‘sovereign state’ to repatriate all illegal immigrants. So, if any political government comes to power after the elections, this process will continue. The new government would be bound to follow this policy.” The minister also estimated that the National Identity Cards (CNICs) blocked over 100,000 fake cards. Additionally, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) Chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman demanded the formation of a commission stating that: “unilateral decisions do not serve Pakistan or Afghanistan.” (Umer Farooq, Imran Ayub, Kashif Abbasi, “Govt reveals plan to expel documented immigrants,” Dawn, 10 November 2023)
80 per cent of Afghan migrants with legal documents in verification centers
On 10 November, Dawn reported that over 80 per cent of Afghans in transit centers were found to have proper legal documents and refuse to voluntarily repatriate. The authorities are concerned as there is no way to verify these documents and therefore have asked the police to not send them to the transit center. There are accusations that the migrant’s documents are confiscated and forcefully sent to the deportation camp. The verification process is facing serious delays and many have requested the help of the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA). (Imtiaz Ali, “Over 80pc Afghans sent to transit centres possess valid documents,” Dawn, 10 November 2023)
Disenchanted PTI leaders form Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party
On 9 November, the Chairman of the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP), Jahangir Tareen, addressed a public gathering in Taxila, along with other top leadership of the newly formed party, including Aleem Khan and Mehmood Kiani. Tareen expressed regrets over the failure to materialise the dream of a “Naya Pakistan” within the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and that they have now “come together” to make this a “reality” through the IPP. They blamed former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s “selfishness” and corruption for the failure, accusing him of not being “sincere” and using “propaganda.” Tareen urged political parties to compete without fighting and called for lofty ideals to take Pakistan where it couldn’t go in the last 75 years. (“IPP leaders regret missed chances during PTI govt,” The Express Tribune, 10 November 2023)
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2023
PR Exclusive Update 20
Rana Sanaullah: On Nawaz Sharif contestation in polls
On 9 November, PML-N leader Rana Sanaullah informed that Nawaz Sharif will not wait for polls in the coming elections and hoped that the charges against him would be cleared by then. When asked what would happen if Nawaz didn’t receive a ‘clean chit,’ he said: “Shehbaz Sharif will remain the president, and the elder Sharif will continue to play his role in the current position.” Regarding their alliance with PML-Q, he said the party supreme is set to meet with Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. Sanaullah also said that they are ready to meet with the PTI party but: “PTI minus May 9 suspects,” and that both Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan should face Justice before the polls and if they are guilty, they should face law. (“Nawaz to contest polls after ‘clean chit’ from courts,” Dawn, 10 November 2023)
Election Commission sets 13 November for contempt hearing against Imran Khan
On 10 November, The Express Tribune reported that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has scheduled a contempt hearing against Imran Khan for 13 November 2023. Imran Khan faces charges of contempt of both the commission and the Chief Election Commissioner, Sikandar Sultan Raja. The ECP also summoned Fawad Chaudhry and Asad Umar to appear in person. The hearing was previously scheduled, but Khan, currently in Adiala Jail, couldn’t be brought to the proceedings due to security concerns. The ECP emphasized the need for a swift verdict in this case, which has been ongoing since August last year. (“Imran to face ECP contempt charge on 13th,” The Express Tribune, 10 November 2023)
ECONOMY
Pakistan and IMF agree on backup measures as loan programme faces challenges
On 9 November, formal talks between the caretaker government of Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were set to begin, after they reached a consensus on backup measures to be activated by the year’s end if significant deviations from fiscal and monetary objectives pose a threat to the ongoing USD three billion loan program. The agreement includes expanding the scope of taxation on the retail sector and improving the targeting of real estate-based revenue collection. The IMF is concerned about revenue targets related to import growth, as imports remain lower than anticipated. Both sides are willing to cut down on development expenditure at the federal and provincial levels, although there is a disagreement over taxation on agriculture, which is out of the government’s agenda but a priority for the IMF. Despite the power sector circular debt crisis, “no major issue has emerged so far for the power sector this time,” as the government was able to handle the issue. It is yet to be seen if there will be any disagreements over Pakistan receiving foreign investment and the appreciation of the rupee. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Govt, IMF agree on backup steps in review talks,” Dawn, 10 November 2023)
Moody’s report says Pakistan most vulnerable to BOP crises among South Asian sovereigns
On 9 November, Moody’s Investors Services released a report titled “Sovereigns- South Asia, Low trade openness fuels vulnerability to shocks and curbs growth in the longer run.” As per this, Pakistan is the most vulnerable among South Asian sovereigns to balance of payment (BOP) crises due to its low level of exports at 10.5 per cent of GDP and weak policy management. The report states that low trade openness and weakly diversified export baskets contribute to low foreign exchange reserves. India is considered the least vulnerable due to its larger and more diversified export sector, better macroeconomic policy management, and adequate foreign exchange reserves. Pakistan’s and Sri Lanka’s credit profiles deteriorated significantly in 2022-23, with both countries facing high domestic political risks and persistent current account deficits. Furthermore, Pakistan is underperforming in its export sector, performing six times below its potential, in part due to cascading tariffs which lead to export substitution. Both Pakistan and Sri Lanka have ineffective fiscal policies, characterised by low savings and large government current account deficits. (Tahir Amin, “South Asian sovereigns: Pakistan most vulnerable to BOP crises: Moody’s,” Business Recorder, 10 November 2023)
EXTERNAL
Pakistan ranks among the top ten exporters of grain to China
On 8 November, the 2023 China Import Food Report was published, and Pakistan has ranked among the top 10 exporters of grain and its products to China in 2022. Shipments have been valued at USD 456 million, reflecting a 14.12 per cent year-on-year growth. Sesame and rice dealer Muhammad Omair highlighted the crucial role of China as a market for Pakistan, citing cheap freight, competitive prices, and high-quality products under the bilateral free trade agreement as key factors contributing to the growth in grain exports. In the first three quarters of 2023, Pakistan exported sesame worth USD 56.446 million to China, representing a 41 per cent growth compared to the same period in 2022. (“Pakistan among top 10 grain exporters to China,” The Express Tribune, 9 November 2023)
Pakistan withdraws diplomatic support for Afghan Taliban interim regime
On 10 November, the Business Recorder reported that Pakistan has decided to withdraw its active diplomatic support for the Afghan Taliban interim regime at international forums. This follows its failure to prevent the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from using Afghanistan’s soil for terrorist activities against Pakistan. It is also in response to increased terrorist attacks by the TTP and the Afghan interim government’s inability to curb the militant group’s operations within Pakistan. Pakistan will no longer advocate or extend active diplomatic support to the Afghan interim government at international forums and will withdraw special privileges granted to Afghan Taliban authorities using Pakistani passports for international visits. Diplomatic staff will remain in Kabul, but the level of support will be curtailed. In response to this, the Taliban interim government spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, stated that the “Islamic Emirate does not allow anyone to use the territory of Afghanistan against Pakistan,” adding that “just as the Islamic Emirate wants peace and stability in Afghanistan, it also wants peace in Pakistan.” However, he also mentioned that they were “not responsible for maintaining peace in Pakistan,” which is placing “blame” on Afghanistan for its “failures.” (Ali Hussain, “Pakistan to withdraw its diplomatic support to Afghan govt,” Business Recorder, 10 November 2023)
PROVINCE
Balochistan: A second doctor succumbs to Congo Virus in Quetta, concerns raised
On 8 November, a second doctor died from the Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) or Congo virus in Quetta, raising concerns about the spread of the disease. The first doctor, Dr Langrove, died on 5 November during transportation to Karachi for treatment. Reports suggest that around 12 doctors and medical staff have tested positive for the virus, emphasizing the need for comprehensive measures to curb its spread. The incidents underscore the urgent need for improved medical infrastructure, support for healthcare professionals, and comprehensive reforms in the healthcare system in Balochistan, where inadequate resources and unpaid doctors exacerbate the challenges of managing infectious diseases. The 1:1000 doctor-to-patient ratio, along with only PKR 23,546 allocation to the health department from the budget, adds to this issue. (Iqra Kakar, “Congo Virus Outbreak Reveals Critical Gaps In Balochistan's Healthcare System,” The Friday Times, 9 November 2023)
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“Bombing hospitals & refugee camps & residential neighborhoods is not "counter-terrorism". It is indiscriminate bombing of a civilian population.”
-Khurram Hussain
“#Pakistan has decided to pull back its diplomatic support, advocacy and special privileges that were extended to Afghanistan Taliban regime following their takeover in 2021, after Taliban failed to crackdown on TTP, diplomatic sources say.”
-Anas Malik
“International conference on humanitarian aid to Gaza going on now. It should issue a collective call for a ceasefire. Thats the real test.”
-Maleeha Lodhi
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Aasim Sajjad Akhtar, ‘Deprived & hateful’
Dawn, 10 November 2023
“The British Raj pitted the subcontinent’s ethnic-national and religious communities against one another. Most historical accounts of the colonial ‘divide and rule’ policy tend to focus on elite segments. But the lowest ranks of the civil and military services, for example, were strategically staffed in ways that stoked ethnic-national and religious tensions in various parts of British India. This has continued in the postcolonial era.”
Editorial, ‘Afghan failures’
Dawn, 10 November 2023
“The Afghan conundrum in fact represents the repeated failures of Pakistan’s security and foreign policies, specifically of seeking ‘strategic depth’ in our western neighbour.”
Editorial, ‘Gas tariff increase’
Dawn, 10 November 2023
“While it is hard to not feel sorry for the weaker segments of society, criticism of wealthy exporters against the hike in gas price holds little merit. The decision to raise the price for the exporting industry by 86.5pc and apply the new tariffs uniformly across the country is a welcome step. Indeed, the rationalisation and application of new uniform but increased gas tariffs will eat into the profits of the exporters and industries based in Karachi and other parts of Sindh who were getting the fuel at much cheaper rates than their counterparts in Punjab who had to use significantly more expensive imported gas during winters due to ever-rising domestic supply gaps. Hence, the opposition to the new prices emanating mostly from Karachi is not surprising.”
Syed Mohammad Ali, ‘Conventional security versus human security’
The Express Tribune, 10 November 2023
“Implementing human security will not be possible if states remain preoccupied by realpolitik considerations. Yet, ongoing global integration is making it increasingly difficult to maximise national interests without understanding the linkages between global and local problems. A virus which erupts in one part of the world can soon become a pandemic. Conflict or climate-induced displacements in the global South can trigger refugee crises not only within the surrounding region, but also for the global North.”
Shahzad Chaudhry, ‘Pakistan’s political predicament’
The Express Tribune, 10 November 2023
“The hybrid nature of governance that have evolved over the last 5-6 years because of deep and multifarious challenges that Pakistani state is beset with is likely to be the order that will stay in vogue for the foreseeable future. Political players like Nawaz Sharif who has returned to the game after four years — not without corporate support — will need to relearn to coexist with such cross-spectrum structures. Not understanding the changed paradigm will only make the ride bumpier and prone to mishaps.”
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